End of Turkish Dream

The odd man out in the ME was Turkey, 2 years ago till last month Turkey never meant the volatile ME it was almost as if it was part of Europe, The European escapists dream holiday and the intelligent investor’s dream destination. The Talk was all about when and how Turkey will join the EU and anybody who spoke and asked the tough question i.e. “Is Turkey in any way qualified t join the EU “ immediately became a notorious right wing neo-con and what not that his/her view would be banished instantly.

2 years down the line how much has changed. Nothing much you could say, its still the dream holiday location and investment location as it was but all of its EU talk has stopped and Turkish people and politicians after 10 years of day dreaming have realized that their EU train has been stopped. In fact realists knew that It will stop someday but European leftists allowed them to dream on and when the sun set on the Euro left, Turkey saw the truth.

Should Turkey be in the EU is something that is debatable, but more fundamental is the existential question of the EU itself, what is the political goal of EU and is it not time that EU defined itself and its physical and Geographical borders? The construct of EU itself is very artificial. At the current time the common factor holding EU is its Caucasian Christian Majority and the prosperity being carrotted to poorer Eastern nations like the Romania and Bulgaria. Take the money off the table and take the free movement of people from East to West off the table, and the result will be that EU borders will be redrawn and will end at the eastern border of Austria.

Coming back to Turkey, if Turkey can claim to become a member of EU then 25 years down the line Iran should so should Iraq both neighbors of Turkey, To define an argument to include Turkey but exclude its warring neighbors is extremely difficult but why did the eternal turkey fans not see this?.

The two big boys of EU Germany and France voted in unison to throw out their meaningless governments a non-working government in DE and a government that stopped working 5 years ago in France and the new leaders in these two states are from the Right wing and they have completely realigned the EU policies in such way that simply shut the door on Turkey. Turkey finds the door shut on its face just when it was dreaming of entering the EU house. While officially there is no statement about it meaningless talk still continue to meander on but everybody knows the truth Turkey’s EU dream is finished.

The Issue is less about Turkey being shut out of EU, the Issue is what about its own future and what about its neighbors and what about the effects on the current EU.


An analysis about this is very interesting, because its going to be lose lose lose.


From 1917 on since the day Ataturk took power and forced Turkey to be Secular and sensible Turkey has had a complex dual identity, the cultural Islamic baggage they carry is a burden they cant easily shake off added to that is that it is surrounded by rabid Islamists namely Iran, Iraq and Kurds. The things that kept this country from falling into the Islamic abyss was a strongly secular army and a surprisingly strong non-oil dependent economy and its historic close links to Western Europe. But again all the three are artificial constructs, common sense says secularism cannot be forced down the throat of a people where majority cannot be secular since Islam and Secularism cannot co-exist. Its like trying to suppress a gene, It cannot be suppressed for long.

Looking at voting patterns it is clear that Turks have started to wean towards more Islamism the secularists have lost ground each election and the army is also losing its grip and the rejection by EU was the best steroid for Turkey to throw away the artificial cloak of Secularism and join the Islamic mainstream. Prime Minister Erdogan sees more chances for himself and his party by taking on the two artificial constructs the army and the secular judiciary. He knows for a fact that their days are numbered and that its just a matter of a few years that Turkey will be a full fledged Islamic republic and may even revert back to its Caliphaite days.

To me personally its not something that is unnatural, it’s nature taking its course and at best the world around can throttle it and delay but the inevitable cannot be denied. Welcome to the new Caliphaite of Turkey.

As Turkey sinks into the Islamic abyss, it will definitely create new winners and losers around it.

Winners

Iran, now bordered by a newly created Islamic empire rather than a pro-western power
Iraq (If it does continue to exist)

Losers

Kurds, an Islamic Turkey will reduce the chances of a Kurdish nation further

Christian Europe:

The Integration of Europe into the Ummah which is at the moment very orderly and gradual will face some turbulence because Turkish minorities make up upto 8% of the population in Germany, France, Austria and Switzerland. Currently the Turkish minority is quite well integrated into these societies and a secular turkey is acting as a deterrent against militant Islamism to which these minorities subscribe, a change in Turkey is a Green signal to these minorities to get violent and that will create a problem for European societies.

As predicted by population experts, it is around 2050 that Europe will have a Muslim majority, but a change in Turkey will hasten the same by 10 to 15 years.

Its Lose Lose Lose all round.