A cut and run in Iraq (quite interesting)

So, It has been a weekend with a lot of activity in fact too many important items have been made public this weekend and I can say for sure that this was not a chance by any means.
The news was intended to hit on a weekend as it would minimize the reaction and give time to handle the inevitable fallout.
The first was a very causal remark by Blair „“The Iraq war was a disaster“ I really don’t know what the rub on the wrong side from Washington was but Blair finally broke ranks with Bush, who at the same time was defending the same in Vietnam.

It is simply irrelevant that Blair broke ranks with Bush, Blairs and Buhes come and go but there is always this special relationship between the Atlantic neighbors that continues. Blair never makes an empty remark, It was not a remark meant to please public audiences nor the lefty groups of Labour, he does not have to please anybody, he is in on his way out, he doesn’t have to really care. The remark is the starting point of Britain’s cut and run strategy in Iraq, plain and simple.

If you were following the British press over the last month, it was quite evident that something of this kind was due in the near future.

Last month, in a rather controversial statement the head of the British Army said something completely new about the role of British troops in Iraq.

At the start of the week the Head of British Intelligence Dame Buller who rarely ever gives public speeches or interviews made a statement saying that they were following about 1600 Islamic terrorists etc etc. and that there were 30 plots against the country etc etc blah blah blah, Its up to you to believe what she said, Its not what she said was important, what was important was the reaction both from the left and the right, Infact the whole week Daily telegraph seemed to agree with the Guardian regards the issue of terror threat to UK.

Dame Buller works for Blair, She will not say something out of tune with the Governments wishes, so does the head of the British Army, they know very well their jobs and peerages at the end of it will come only if they are loyal to their masters and not too many public servants will risk their futures to speak really what they think.

Blair’s comments yesterday were just a continuation of the same, The fact is the government is setting the platform of return of the troops from Iraq mostly by end of the year.

The question is why now

The US has in the year 2006 mostly come out of its 19th century ideological thinking, Europe came out of it first when England could not defeat Nasser in Egypt and the French realized the same in Algeria and the US is realizing the same after Iraq.

They know for a fact that Iraq, Iran or for that matter any other gulfie states, are all failed states in various stages of failure, If the price of oil sustains today’s prices or hovers around 55-60 USD per barrel most economies of the Islamic world will simply collapse.
The Islamic states survived by either oil or conquest the second option anymore does not exist and when oil price crashes they don’t seem to have any future.

There are arguments which state that the price of oil is set by demand and supply and that the developing economies if India and China (The usual culprit states if you are a westerner) would create a huge demand for oil based on their growth rates.

This agrument is firstly false, secondly bigoted and third I sum it up as a racial outburst of a loser who knows that he will lose.

Why!, because India grew by 8.5% last year averaged over the last 4 quarters, China grew by 10% (If you go by official Chinese government figures,whether you believe them or not is left to you)

There was a net 1% increase in growth for both India and China yoy,it infact did NOT add even 5$ to the price of oil, hence even if Indian economy were to grow at 9.5% next year and Chinese economy at 11% they will not add 5$ to the oil price plain and simple.

With the recent Ethanol boom in the US (refer the recent rise in ethanol stocks on US markets and the return of the pro-boi fuel democrats to power) and a growing realization that dependence on imported oil is risky to economic health. US is slowly disengaging from the Gulfie states, nope I am not saying that US stopped buying gulfie oil, they will not stop in the near future either.

Gulfie states have no “real economies” they are rather farcial “kingdoms” set up and ruled by clownish monarchs who claim their right to rule invoking religion. Their only means of survival was selling oil to the west and “distributing” the same to the public, infact distribution is the real word because in the Gulfie world you don’t need skills to earn, you just get the share provided you are in the good books of the ruling family.

Imagine smaller states like Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain etc etc their only means of survival was high oil prices, deny them higher oil prices and collapse they will.The larger ones like the saudis and the Iranians will struggle a little longer before collapsing.

In the scenario that oil will continue to be in the price range of 55 to 60 USD, most gulfie states will collapse under their own weights, no Western influence needed and Iranain ambitions will remain what they are ambitions. (did you read about Iran renegotiating prices of gas to India, at least Iranians read the writing on the wall)

In this scenario US and UK rationally think that they need not “waste” resources in the Gulf anymore.

Infact it comes back to the same oil vs oranges theory if Iraq were exporting oranges instaed of oil, and saddam continued his human rights excesses the west would not care. But unfortunate for him he was exporting oil and then it costed 70USD a barrel!.

Of course the lefties and their compatriots the Islamists will claim some kind of a victory though both know deep in their hearts, it was any way a no win battle, most of the time the battle was short term and circumstance based, and in the changed circumstances the “enemy” does not want to fight, because there is nothing left to fight for, because the enemy knows the fall in the price of oil is more deadlier than a bullet.
PS: US will shortly follow UK and leave Iraq, so that the Iraqis fight their own little futile sectarian battles, till realisation dawns (if it does,I for one personally do not think so, because I firmly believe “realization” to Islamic masses means end of Islam) while the rest of the civilized world moves on….

Get the point!!!